The following key domestic and global triggers are expected to influence market sentiment in the week ahead. Investors will be closely tracking corporate results, macro data, and central bank cues.
| Trigger for the Week |
How will it impact? |
| Nifty +0.97% up, Sensex +0.97% higher for the week ended 03-Oct |
The positive momentum came from the RBI’s monetary policy update, which raised FY26 growth estimates and cut inflation projections — improving overall market sentiment. |
| Mid-cap index +2.00% higher; small-cap index +1.81% up this week |
Investors are once again hunting for alpha in broader markets, with mid-caps drawing more focus than small-caps amid selective institutional buying. |
| Corporate results season Q2FY26 begins this week |
The earnings season kicks off on 09 October with results from TCS, Tata Elxsi, GM Breweries and others — setting the tone for quarterly performance trends. |
| India closely watching the progress of US government shutdown |
Any extended shutdown may influence trade, tariff decisions, and US visa policy — key factors impacting Indian IT and export-oriented sectors. |
| Indian rupee remains under pressure |
The RBI has been actively defending the rupee near ₹89/USD. Sustained weakness could impact imported inflation and FPI flows. |
| PMI manufacturing and services data to be released |
High-frequency indicators remain strong; post-RBI’s GDP upgrade, PMI readings will give additional cues on economic momentum. |
| RBI to announce bank loan and deposit growth on Friday |
These numbers will provide clarity on sectoral credit growth and could affect bank NIM outlook and interest rate positioning. |
| US unemployment data due Friday |
Markets expect unemployment near 4.3%. Payroll data will be critical in assessing the US economy’s resilience and Fed’s rate path. |
| US Fed to release FOMC minutes of September meeting |
After the 25 bps rate cut, investors will parse the minutes for clues on the future rate trajectory and inflation outlook. |
| FOMC members’ speeches scheduled through the week |
Remarks from Kashkari, Bowman, Bostic, Barr, and Powell will be closely watched for guidance on rates and macro stability. |
| Two mega IPOs to dominate primary markets this week |
Tata Capital, WeWork, and LG Electronics India will collectively raise around ₹30,000 crore — testing investor appetite amid heavy fundraising activity. |
| Technical Levels – Nifty & Sensex |
Nifty: Support/Resistance at 24,793 / 24,950 | Sensex: 80,820 / 81,423. Trend change if Nifty falls below 24,646 or Sensex below 80,335. |
| Key US Data Points to Watch |
Fed Speak, FOMC Minutes, Jobs Report, Trade Deficit, Redbook, API Crude Stocks, Jobless Claims, and WASDE Report — all crucial for rate outlook and risk sentiment. |
| Key Global (ROW) Data Points |
ECB and BOE speeches, Eurogroup Meetings (EU); Household Spending & Current Account (Japan); PMI and Housing Price Index (UK) to influence currency and bond markets. |
